It was two months in the past that the Villa attacker was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while his coach scolded him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. At that point, as the club failed to win in six, doubts remained whether his performances were an indicator or a cause for the team's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, though, the touchline reaction proved to be far more favourable. When the in-form star curled home his second to reinstate the lead for Villa, the boss tore off his jacket, opened his arms and roared. The team were on their way to a 10th successive win and having failed to win their opening six matches, now sit only three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Title Contenders?
This is an exceptionally difficult question to resolve. Past precedent, the traditional standing of Villa, indicates otherwise. Additionally, their performances haven't been completely commanding in many games, despite the fact the victories have accumulated.
According to Opta, twice all season have Villa had an expected goals figure notably superior than the opposition. For a club which has strung together a ten-match winning streak, they seem strangely fragile – however currently the fine lines are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy seems to be to engage in a shootout with rivals before hoping Rogers to bail them out with two clinical strikes. This occurred away to Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and once more against United.
The initial strike stemmed from a superb shot, curled just inside the upright from the corner of the box. For his second acted as a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, Manchester United managed more efforts and more direct attempts. Villa have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge they will encounter as the season progresses. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot keep on thrashing his shots into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is an alternative path where, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs could still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward could start adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent might become the player he was in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to return from injury, strengthening a periodically leaky defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a title challenge, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And certainly earlier this season, nobody thought Rogers now would be spearheading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a crucial England player.
This winning streak must be cherished for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner positioned himself before the Villa faithful at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These spells are rare in football and should be relished.
